Dear Investor, Are You Trend-Following Material?

Sure, We Cannot! Or Can We?

Identical to there is a main distinction between concept & observe, studying buying and selling books & buying and selling the markets are hardly the identical factor. In any other case, simply studying a superb funding e book would immediately put a load of cash in our pockets.

Equally – there is a huge distinction between who we need to be & who we actually are, in any other case we would be dwelling in a a lot better world.

Identical to the market reductions every little thing, in buying and selling who we’re reductions who we need to be.

The markets will not be an atmosphere for guesswork.

You may’t predict the market, and you’ll’t management it.

However you possibly can management your self, and to a big extent, by figuring out the way you perform you possibly can predict your actions fairly precisely. Furthermore, nobody else can do that higher for you than your self. That is an edge for you, the dealer.

So let’s get private. Ranging from a couple of information about who you’re, let’s attempt to decide your primary psychological profile & whether or not pattern buying and selling is basically for you or you have to be a knife-catcher as a substitute;)

Affected person vs. Quick & Jumpy

Are you a affected person fellow? Everybody talks about “respecting your buying and selling plan” & “being disciplined” in your buying and selling & certainly, persistence is one important particular person high quality related to self-discipline in buying and selling. Whereas persistence is required for BOTH approaches, it’s way more vital in trend-trading, as a result of necessity to remain longer out there following the pattern, reduce your losses brief & maintain your income working.

Obtained itchy fingers?:) If you end up buying and selling counter-trend, you will have much less time to react & enter a commerce (in case you are sluggish, you miss the practice). Development-trading requires much less velocity of response, since a pattern you are planning to “journey” shouldn’t be one thing that disappears from one minute to the following, whereas alternatives towards the pattern are by nature much less in quantity & extra restricted in time.

Rational & Organized vs. Emotional & Erratic

Are you a reason-driven particular person? In opposition to widespread perception, there’s extra stress on a pattern dealer than on a counter-trend dealer. Suppose what number of instances you closed a commerce too early, and you’ll instantly perceive why. With the ability to perceive all parts of the buying and selling plan & act on them in a lucid, coherent method will show you how to in following the self-discipline of the pattern. Development-following trades must work like surgeons, chopping their method via the pattern at exact moments.

Do you permit Feelings to take over? When buying and selling towards the pattern, you’ll normally go for SHORTER trades (in comparison with the size of the pattern). There shall be much less time to crack underneath stress, and figuring out your commerce will quickly be both in revenue or closed for a loss ought to maintain you from interfering with it (thus rising the possibility of respecting your buying and selling plan). if you already know your self to make emotional selections at instances when cause ought to prevail (when buying and selling, that is at all times!) then you might need to severely think about counter-trend buying and selling, as trend-following motion might not be your cup of tea.

Danger Taker vs. Security Freak

Do You Get pleasure from a Good Thrill? Human nature drives us in the direction of security (closing realized income, even small) and away from the unknown (unrealized income, on the desk, in danger), even when we do have a buying and selling plan and the need to comply with it. Most merchants I interacted to (as much as 95%, give or take) have at the very least for a while of their buying and selling profession reduce their trades too early thus shedding good potential income in fairness. As a pattern dealer, you will want to beat this obsession with security, and permit your trades to be uncovered to managed threat (since you will have the benefit of chance in your facet). You have to to by psychologically sturdy sufficient to take a threat with out blinking (managed & calculated threat, after all – in accordance with your rational & organized persona), as breaking the dynamic of the pattern can kill your technique in the long term.

Not Snug in Dangerous Conditions? Development buying and selling is rising the percentages of closing trades too early, whereas counter-trend strikes are much less psychologically burdening. Moreover, cease losses will be moved to interrupt even a lot quicker when being in a “proper or mistaken” situation (thus placing the dealer’s thoughts relaxed quicker about having to take a loss), whereas when using a pattern cease loss placement will be problematic as a result of giant stops related to excessive chance buying and selling (pattern buying and selling has usually increased chance of success, though it might not at all times have equally good threat/reward). So, if you happen to’re not the type of man who enjoys dwelling on the sting, counter-trend buying and selling could also be your factor.

Conservative vs. Aggressive

Not the Adventurous Kind? if you happen to do not thoughts strolling the overwhelmed path (which can be safer, clearer & extra predictable!), then you’re most likely extra of a trend-trader than a counter-trend dealer. if you happen to do not thoughts taking your pips in the midst of a pattern – so long as it’s totally clear you’re on the appropriate course – you are a pattern lover at coronary heart. In the event you like doing issues the confirmed, “proper” method, if you happen to favor a recognized “good” to an unknown “presumably higher” & don’t love being the primary at a celebration, then the pattern can certainly be a superb pal to you.

Are you daring & daring? Some individuals just like the buying and selling adrenaline simply as a lot as they like income. That is OK, so long as they do not find it irresistible MORE than the income & begin buying and selling for thrills as a substitute of money. In the event you assume that simply leaping on a pattern after it began & after it has been confirmed is simply too boring for you, then forcing your self to do exactly that won’t assist & could ultimately deliver you to acts of indiscipline. Stick with counter-trend buying and selling & you’ll always expertise the pleasure of being in a transfer earlier than all people else – the satisfaction of doing what you like might help you keep “within the zone” & get pleasure from your hours of buying and selling.

Modest vs. Proud

Like Preserving a Low Profile? In the event you do not thoughts taking three losses for 1 win – if the win makes Four-5 instances greater than a loss – you then’re undoubtedly well-cut for pattern buying and selling. In the event you’re not involved in proving your self to your self or anybody else & what issues is the general fairness curve, not having numerous winners & being “mistaken” is not going to matter & will not put pointless stress on you. The pattern offers you sustained rides, a lot bigger than your preliminary threat, strikes than can simply cowl for two, three and even Four of your losses. Constantly scoring a 40% win price on a 2:1 threat/reward technique will make you very worthwhile in the long term, though you can be mistaken as a rule.

You Get pleasure from Saying “I Informed You So”? Some individuals identical to being proper & sticking it to others. Whereas that is one thing each dealer ought to always attempt to battle towards (as a result of the market is the one one proper on a regular basis!) it’s nonetheless a characteristic of our persona that we should always attempt to acknowledge & – why not? – even use as an edge if attainable. A optimistic mindset (given by a excessive variety of wins) might help you keep motivated so long as it does not flip into outright cockiness. If you already know your self to be proud & you usually rely the winners towards the losers then you should search for a technique with a excessive profitable price, even when the danger to reward might not be greater than 1:1. It is probably a counter-trend system could provide you with simply that, whereas a trend-following technique might deliver up emotions of frustration as you’d are likely to focus extra on the detrimental facet of issues (wins vs. losses) as a substitute of the optimistic (a worthwhile fairness curve).


The markets are a difficult atmosphere & buying and selling is a extremely subtle exercise. We actually needn’t add in our personal private weaknesses to make our job tougher. We should always all do our homework earlier than we commerce, study our strengths & weaknesses & come to the battlefield ready & well-armed.

Ee want to know & absolutely use ALL OUR EDGES to prevail on our competitors. Different merchants are NOT our enemies – the market is an goal, good entity, keep in mind? We’re our worst enemies, and our indiscipline is our enemies’ chief. The market doesn’t take our cash, we give it away ourselves via our actions.

We’re not good entities, and figuring out ourselves, admitting our private persona biases is CRUCIAL for bettering our buying and selling outcomes (whether or not we’re newbies or professionals).

Rigorously analyze your persona earlier than creating your buying and selling plan, and give you one thing will be just right for you NATURALLY. All the time take into consideration WHO YOU ARE, not WHO YOU WANT TO BE! If you’re into self-improvement (and you have to be!), do this outdoors your buying and selling hours. You might not be good, however while you’re in entrance of your platform it’s best to attempt to turn out to be an ideal entity too: a machine that completely follows a pre-designed buying and selling plan.

A few of you’re absolutely “automated” merchants (with or with out robots), strictly following guidelines & solely guidelines, leaving nothing to discretion or real-time subjective analysis. That is nice, as a result of whilst you could also be lacking out on some motion each now & then, you can be a lot much less prone to be hit by a nasty drawdown (normally created by indiscipline).

If however you’re a DISCRETIONARY dealer, you should rigorously outline the bounds of your discretion. You do not need to be discretionary to the purpose of doing no matter you need everytime you need, overriding your whole buying and selling plan. This strategy can result in nothing however failure. Once more: discretionary or mechanical, trend-following or counter-trend buying and selling – there is no proper or mistaken reply.. However on the subject of YOU, there’s a higher technique to do issues, that comes out of figuring out your self & giving the markets (in addition to every little thing else) the most effective of who you’re.

This can be a private re-writing of Mihai’s current webinar on trend-trading psychology. As I discovered it extraordinarily fascinating, I used an audio transcript of the session & Mihai’s personal notes to make it obtainable to different merchants. It is also my method of claiming thanks to an awesome dealer & instructor for the dedication & persistence he put in my schooling & all of the lengthy messenger chats over the previous Four years:) For over three years I’m efficiently buying and selling each trend-following & counter pattern methods & make a extremely good dwelling as a dealer & just lately as a fund supervisor.

I can warmly suggest Mihai’s instructional program in case you are on the lookout for an A-Z coaching (it is not marketed, you may should contact him by way of his web site). I beloved it as a result of the strategy was very personalised & he followed-up carefully with me after the coaching till he noticed I used to be in a position to persistently generate income. He nonetheless checks on my trades weekly. If you’re an already established dealer, I extremely suggest the reside trend-following system (his web site presents Free Foreign exchange Alerts Reside [] with course, ranges & different instruments, so you possibly can verify them risk-free). If you’re on the lookout for skilled cash administration be at liberty to contact me instantly.

Good luck!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *